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Quick Probability Chart

                                    

Have you ever watched a professional poker tournament on television and, after a Flop, hear Daniel Negranou casually chirp: "Oh!  You're a 4-to-1 dog!"  Well after thanking him for the rude canine reference did you find yourself thinking: "Dude!  What the hell!  Did you swallow a damned spreadsheet or something?" 

No, he didn't swallow a spreadsheet.  After many years of playing the game he's simply memorized the probabilities of getting certain hole cards and of hitting supporting cards on the Flop, Turn and River.  While we can't crack your skull and dump all this knowledge in for you we can present it to you and allow you to absorb it in whatever way works for you.

 

                             Situation Pct Chance Probability Odds Against
Pair preflop 6% 1 in 17 16:1
Suited cards preflop 24% 1 in 4.2 3.2:1
Suited Connectors (2/3, KQ, ...) 4% 1 in 25 24:1
AA or KK preflop .9% 1 in 111 110:1
AK preflop 1.2% 1 in 83 82:1
AKs preflop .3% 1 in 332 331:1
A in hand preflop 16% 1 in 6.25 5.25:1
AA, KK, QQ, JJ 1.8% 1 in 56 55:1
Flop being all one kind (JJJ or QQQ) .24% 1 in 425 424:1
AA versus KK preflop (heads up) .004% 1 in 22560 22559:1
AK dealt preflop and hitting an A or K by the river 50% 1 in 2 Even
QQ versus AK heads up till river 56% 1 in 1.78 14:11 favorite
Two cards preflop that are Js or higher 9% 1 in 11 10:1
Beer Hand (72off) preflop (or any other nonsuited two card combo) .9% 1 in 110 109:1
Four flush completing (JsTs Flop Qs4sAd 6h Ks) 39% 1 in 2.6 3:2
Open Ended Straight-Flush completing to flush or straight by river 54% 1 in 1.85 14:12
Open Ended Straight completing (JT Flop Q94 86) 34% 1 in 2.9 ~2:1
Two Pair on flop Improving to Full House 17% 1 in 5.8 ~5:1
Three of a kind (set) on flop improving to Full House or Quads 37% 1 in 2.7 ~3:2
Pocket pair improving to three of a kind on flop 12% 1 in 8 7:1
No pair hand preflop improving to a pair on the flop (either card) 32% 1 in 3.125 ~2:1
If you have suited cards, two will flop 11% 1 in 9 8:1
One pair on flop improving to two pair or three of a kind by river 22% 1 in 4.7 ~4:1
Pocket pair improving to three of a kind after flop 9% 1 in 11 10:1
Two over cards improving to a pair by river 26% 1 in 3.9 ~3:1
Two over cards and a gutshot improving to pair or straight 43% 1 in 2.3 4:3
Gutshot straight draw hitting by river 17% 1 in 6 5:1
Gutshot and pair improving to two pair or better 39% 1 in 2.6 3:2
Backdoor Flush hitting (5s6s Flop 7sAh9c KsJs) 4% 1 in 24 23:1
Runner Runner Straight (56 Flop 3TQ 47) 1.5% 1 in 68 67:1
Backdoor Flush and One Over Card improving to that pair or flush 17% 1 in 6 5:1
Catching Ace on turn or river (A4 Flop Q63 KA) 13% 1 in 8 7:1
Backdoor Flush and Gutshot improving to one by river (Ac4c Flop 3s5cKs) 21% 1 in 4.8 3.8:1
Backdoor Flush And Two Over Cards improving to pair or flush 30% 1 in 3.3 2.3:1
5 players on flop, that someone has an A when one is on board 58% 1 in 1.7 14:11
4 players on flop, that someone has an A when one is on board 47% 1 in 2.1 Even
3 players on flop, that someone has an A when one is on board 35% 1 in 2.9 ~2:1
2 players on flop, that someone has an A when one is on board 23% 1 in 4.3 3.2:1
3 of one suit on board and another coming (QsTs2s) if you have one 39% 1 in 2.6 3:2
5 players in with board paired, chance of one of them having it 43% 1 in 2.4 4:3
4 players in with board paired, chance of one of them having it 34% 1 in 3 2:1
3 players in with board paired, chance of one of them having it 26% 1 in 4 3:1
2 players in with board paired, chance of one of them having it 17% 1 in 5.8 ~5:1

 

We realize this is a lot to absorb but nothing stops you from printing this sheet and bringing it with you to the table.  Even in casinos you are allowed to bring and use notes, as long as they don't interfere with your play or the play of any one else at the table.

So long for now...

As always we encourage our players to take some time and practice the tools and concepts we share with you here on game nights.  Just remember, the rest of the table is practicing on you too.  Either way here's your chance to be a Future Legend of Poker....or at least meet a few...:)


Brandon and Monica